Natural resources, export structure and investment


We present cross-country empirical evidence on the role of natural resources in explaining long-run differences in private investment as a share of GDP in a sample of 78 developing countries. Our empirical results suggest important differences between fossil fuels and non-fuel resources. While significant fuel exports tend to increase private (and public) investment, there is also a robust negative effect from a measure of export concentration. After controlling for these two aspects of export structure, there is little additional information in other natural resource indicators, or in other suggested investment determinants, such as measures of the quality of institutions, political instability or macroeconomic volatility.


Stephen Bond & Adeel Malik